A lot of focus has been thinking about how Shikota party (break-away party) will dent ANC’s election victory and less about who will be the official opposition party.
The way I see it, it’s either the ANC will get a significant win or will be dented by the break-away party. In the case where the ANC wins elections which we all know it will. Amongst the alternative parties (and there’re more than 102 political parties registered with IEC), who will be the official opposition?
Could it be the Shikota, DA, UDM or other? Could it be that the DA will grow or should they have embraced or offered a home for the Mbeki’tes through offering senior positions for the disappointed i.e. Lekota or Shilowa, of cause DA would have had to sacrifice some of their senior members’ positions to do this. Currently I’m still confused about how their parliamentarian job offers http://www.thetimes.co.za/Careers/Article.aspx?id=860230 will work for them? but let’s hope it has something up its sleeve.
The test for the possible new party will be this weekend, to see if whether it has what it takes to further dent the ruling party, it is certainly milking the ruling party off its intellectual capacity slowly but surely.
So far the UDM has gained from the defects and it remains to be seen how many more will leave their paid jobs for Shikota or UDM.
My prediction so far is that ANC will win elections by just above 50% or by a huge margin, depending on who will people sympathise with next year; Zuma, Mbeki or Shikota). We have to face it that there are a lot more people who will vote for any of the sides that Mbeki chooses to vote for in the name of sympathy with the way he was recalled. Mbeki has a lot of people watching him closely waiting for his next move so they can ‘follow’.
As for opposition party this will be a hot contested terrain between DA and Shikota…my pen will be waiting for the victor and of cause for the loser too. It will be a sad day when the results come out.